FOMC Chairman Powell to echo message from July minutes at Jackson Hole – TDS

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic events, TD Securities analysts noted that they expect FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell to echo the message from the July meeting minutes when he speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Key quotes

"QE tapering is likely by year-end if the labor data continue to show strength, but don’t expect an announcement as soon as the September meeting. We continue to forecast a formal taper announcement in December, although November remains possible if the next two employment reports are unexpectedly strong."

"The core PCE price index appears to have risen more than the core CPI in July (0.4% versus 0.3%), boosted by data from the PPI. The rise in prices likely more than offset nominal growth in consumer spending; we estimate -0.3% for real spending and +0.2% for nominal. Income growth (forecast: +0.6%) was likely boosted by the expanded child tax credit."