USD/IDR Price News: Rupiah stays firmer around $14,250 as Indonesia trade surplus rises

• USD/IDR sellers attack weekly support line, remains pressured around intraday low.
• Indonesia Trade Balance improved, Imports and Exports also grew in August.

USD/IDR remains on the back foot around $14,250, down 0.06% intraday, after the upbeat Indonesia trade number release on early Wednesday. Also favoring the sellers to attack short-term support line is the market’s indecision over the Fed’s next moves and the US dollar moves that lack direction of late.

Indonesia Trade Balance grew past $2.4B market consensus and $2.59B previous readouts to $4.74B in August. Further details state that the Imports and Exports also crossed priors and forecasts while flashing 55.26% and 64.10% of respective growth figures.

It’s worth noting that the easy US inflation figures challenged the Fed tapering concerns the previous day but traders aren’t convinced, which in turn portray the latest sluggish Asian session amid a lack of major data/events.

That said, the US CPI dropped the most since January on monthly basis to 0.3% versus 0.4% expected and 0.5% prior. The CPI ex Food & Energy also dropped below 0.3% expected and previous readings to 0.1% during August, marking the biggest fall in six months. Fed’s readiness to accept a bit higher inflation figures, terming it ‘transitory’, seems to be at the test with almost double YoY figures than the US central bank’s previous target range of near 2.0%.

Moving on, risk catalysts and the second-tier US data may direct intraday moves of the USD/IDR pair. However, Thursday’s US Retail Sales and Friday’s Michigan Consumer Confidence will be crucial ahead of the next week’s all-important Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Technical analysis

A clear downside break of the one-week-old support line, near $14,245 at the latest, becomes necessary for the USD/IDR bears to keep controls. Alternatively, 200-DMA near $14,320 guards the quote’s short-term upside.