Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pares weekly gains below $1,800 ahead of US Retail Sales

• Gold remains pressured after reversing Tuesday’s gains, sidelined of late.
• Risk appetite sours amid anxiety over Fed’s next moves, covid and China news.
• US Retail Sales may help recede Fed tapering bets, favor gold buyers on matching down expectations for August.
• Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD shows weakness, unable to hold above $1,800

Gold (XAU/USD) takes offers around $1,792.50, extending the previous day’s losses heading into Thursday’s European session.

The yellow metal failed to benefit from the US dollar weakness on Wednesday as market sentiment dwindles over the Fed’s next moves even as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) favored equities and weighed on the US Treasury yields.

The reason could be linked to the cautious optimism shown by the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers and strong NY Empire State Manufacturing, as well as Import-Export Price Index data for September and August respectively.

Among the ECB policymakers, Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel was more hawkish while saying, “Market may be overestimating risks to the global growth outlook.” On the same line was ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane who said that he is happy that the accommodative monetary policy is helping to build core inflation in the euro area, as reported by Reuters.

It’s worth noting that Australia’s trilateral security pact with the UK and the US, availing nuclear-powered submarines, signals a further worsening of relations with China and weighed on market sentiment earlier in the day. Further, higher virus infections in Australia, China and New Zealand also challenge the risk appetite, as well as gold prices.

It should be noted that the US adds the UK to its welcome list for the next week’s diplomatic talks in the White House and amplifies market fears that the Western friends are again gearing up for a battle with China, which in turn heavy the sentiment.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures erase early Asian gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields drop one basis point (bp) to retest 1.297% by the press time.

Given the market’s sour sentiment ahead of the key data, the risk catalysts could keep the gold prices pressured.

Read: US August Retail Sales Preview: Can gold turn bullish on a weak print?

Technical analysis

In addition to a pullback from a 17-day-old horizontal hurdle, gold traders’ failure to keeps 100-SMA breakout also hints at the commodity’s weakness, additionally portrayed by a downward sloping RSI line.

Hence, the gold sellers are well-directed towards the monthly support line, near $1,785.

However, a clear downside below the stated support line will set the tone for extra south-run to the mid-August lows near $1,770.

Meanwhile, 100-SMA and the horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since August 24, respectively around $1,804 and $1,808-09, guard the metal’s short-term upside.

Also acting as the key resistance is a two-month-old area near $1,834 that holds the key to the gold upside towards the $1,900 threshold.

Overall, gold prices remain tight-lipped between short-term horizontal resistance and an ascending support line.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected