China: Growth forecasts revised lower – BBVA

Growth has slowed down during the third quarter in China amid a number of headwinds, including regulatory storms, default risk of real estate giant, the electricity crunch and the authorities’ new campaign of “common prosperity” and social equality, points out the Research Department at BBVA.

Key Quotes: 

“Economic structure remains unbalanced as the economy depends too much on exports while domestic consumption and investment keep lackluster.”

“Compared with high inflation pressure in US and the EU, China’s CPI is still at bay, with a weak pass-through effect from PPI to CPI.”

“Diverging with the QE Tapering in the advanced economies, China’s monetary policy will be more easing to deal with growth slowdown.”

“We lower our 2021 GDP prediction to 8% y/y from 8.2% previously; we also lower our 2022 GDP forecast from 5.5% to 5.2%.”