EUR/USD to resume the core downtrend towards the 1.1290 mark – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD remains in a range for now above 1.1495/93 – the March 2020 high and 50% retracement of the 2020/2021 bull trend. Nevertheless, a major top remains in place and analysts at Credit Suisse still look for a resumption of the core downtrend, with scope for 1.1290 over the medium-term.

EUR/USD remains in a range above key support at 1.1495/93, with a break increasingly close

“EUR/USD remains in a short-term range for now after the pair has repeatedly been floored above major support at 1.1495/93. Nevertheless, our bias stays lower and we believe a breakdown is increasingly imminent ahead of US CPI today, with the recent decisive rejection of key resistance from its falling 55-day average (and downtrend from June) at 1.1666/95 still the key technical feature.”

“A major top also remains in place, reinforcing the case for a resumption of the core downtrend and a clear break below the 1.1524/13 October lows. Below here and 1.1495/93 would trigger a move to support then seen next at 1.1377/70, before the 61.8% retracement at 1.1300/1.1290, where we would expect to see another pause.”

“Mid-range resistance stays at 1.1609/18, which ideally caps over CPI today. We shall maintain an immediate tactical bearish bias though whilst below 1.1693/95.”