Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to keep its status as a desired asset

Gold rose more than 2% and closed its second straight week higher. In the view of FXStree’s Eren Sengezer, XAU/USD’s bullish outlook should stay intact if gold clears key resistance area at $1,865.

Focus on inflation and what it means for central banks’ policy outlook in the near-term

“On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau will publish the October Retail Sales data. A weaker-than-expected print could revive concerns over inflation impacting consumer activity negatively and provide a boost to gold. On the other hand, an upbeat reading could help risk flows return to markets and limit XAU/USD’s upside.”

“CPI data from the UK and the euro area are due out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Even though the data from Europe don’t usually have a noticeable effect on gold’s market valuation, they could highlight the policy divergence and weigh on XAU/USD by lifting the dollar against other major currencies. In case the CPI figures reveal that price pressures are stronger than expected, gold could stay resilient vs the greenback.”

“On the downside, $1,830 (previous resistance, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of April-June uptrend) aligns as key support. In case bulls continue to defend this area and don’t allow it to turn into resistance, XAU/USD is likely to regain its traction.” 

“Below the level $1,830, $1,800 (psychological level) could be seen as the next support before $1,790 (100-day SMA, 200-day SMA).”

“Above $1,865 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement), resistances are located at $1,880 (static level) and $1,900 (psychological level).”