EUR/SEK: “Winter is coming” and it spells trouble for Swedish krona – Danske Bank

EUR/SEK has again moved higher since the beginning of November. However, with global growth outlook deteriorating and too aggressive medium-term pricing on the Riksbank, analysts at Danske bank remain bearish on the Swedish krona forecasting EUR/SEK at 10.50 in 12 months. 

Brief visit in single-digits for EUR/SEK

“A perfect storm of equities-related flows, positioning and monetary policy re-pricing recently pushed EUR/SEK below 10.00. However, we expect the visit into single-digit territory to be short-lived and maintain our strategically bearish view on SEK with global growth outlook deteriorating and too aggressive medium-term pricing on the Riksbank.”

“We continue to forecast EUR/SEK to 10.50 in 12 months.”

“A risk to our forecast is if markets continue to push for an early Riksbank hike, leaving the SEK to possibly gain even further. If instead the market re-price in line with our view, SEK depreciation might come faster than expected.”