EUR/USD: Break below 1.1186/68 to open up the 1.1019/02 zone – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD remains in its tight converging range above the 1.1186/68 price support from June 2020. An eventual break below 1.1168 should confirm a resumption of the core bear trend for a move to the 1.1019/02 region, economists at Credit Suisse report.

Close above 1.1387 needed to clear the way for a deeper recovery to 1.1433

“We maintain our core negative view and look for a break below 1.1265 for a fall back to 1.1237/27 initially, then a retest of 1.1186/68.” 

“An eventual break below 1.1186/68 would confirm the resumption of the core bear trend to the measured ‘head & shoulders’ top objective at 1.1075 then our 1.1019/02 core objective – the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend and ‘neckline’ to the April/May 2020 base. With the long-term uptrend from 2000 just below, our bias remains to look for a major floor here.” 

“Near-term resistance moves to 1.1325, with 1.1356/60 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower.”

“A close above 1.1387 remains needed to see a small base complete instead to clear the way for a deeper recovery to 1.1433, potentially what we would expect to be much tougher resistance at 1.1464.”