NZD/USD reached a YTD high at 0.6925, then plunges 100-pips on risk-off market mood

• The NZD/USD rally stalled near the 200-DMA, plummeting afterward under the 100-DMA.
• The market sentiment stays downbeat as the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its twelve days.
• NZD/USD Technical Outlook: Neutral-upwards, but it could fall further, to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before resuming upwards.

The New Zealand dollar retreats from daily highs capped around the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6928, though three pip short, blamed on a gloomy market mood amid the Ukraine-Russia conflict. At the time of writing, the NZD/USD slides 0.42%, trading at 0.6835, near the 100-DMA.

NZD higher on commodity prices, US macroeconomic data ignored

In the last week, the NZD finished on a higher tone, gaining close to 2%, attributed to higher commodity prices, despite the escalation between Ukraine-Russia. Furthermore, last US economic data with the Nonfarm Payrolls report for February that came higher than expected at 678K vs. 400K new jobs expected, took the backseat, despite giving the green light to a Federal Reserve rate hike of 25 bps in the March 15-16 meeting, the first one since December 2918.

However, late on the week, the US economic docket would feature the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, which in the case of rising more than estimated, could influence Fed policymakers on a larger rate hike than what’s priced in as reported by money market futures.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The NZD/USD is neutral-upward biased, though the rally capped at 0.6025, near the 200-DMA at 0.6928, retreating violently near 100-pips under the 100-DMA at 0.6838. That said, a daily close below the 100-DMA would exacerbate a downward move towards February 23 resistance/support at 0.6809. Breach of the latter would push the NZD/USD to the confluence of the 50-DMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around the 0.6723-43 area before resuming the uptrend.