USD/TRY Price Analysis: Weekly support break hints at further downside towards 16.00

• USD/TRY struggles to find direction around yearly high, fades two-day rebound.
• Downbeat RSI, clear break of short-term support line favor sellers to aim for 200-HMA.
• Bulls need clear break of $16.47 to challenge late 2021 peak.

USD/TRY remains pressured around 16.40, after multiple days of inaction, during early Wednesday morning in Europe.

In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair justifies the recent downside break of a one-week-old rising trend line amid softer RSI, not oversold.

Given the USD/TRY pair’s multiple failures to refresh the yearly high, as well as the latest trend line break and steady RSI, the quote is likely declining towards the 200-HMA level near 16.20.

During the pair’s weakness past 16.20, multiple tops marked during May 25-26 can test the USD/TRY bears around 16.15, a break of which could direct them to the 16.00 threshold.

Meanwhile, a convergence of the previous support line and recent tops near $16.47 guards the short-term USD/TRY upside. Ahead of that, a one-week-old horizontal line near 16.43 may test pair buyers.

It’s worth noting that the USD/TRY run-up beyond 16.47 won’t hesitate to cross the 17.00 round figure while eyeing the late 2021 high surrounding 18.35.

USD/TRY: Hourly chart

Trend: Pullback expected