USD/JPY: Rally could extend to 140 – Scotiabank

USD/JPY trades at its highest level in 20 years above 133.00. The near-term prognosis for the JPY remains soft and economists at Scotiabank believe that the pair could climb as high as 140.

Technical backdrop in USD/JPY is bullish

“The technical backdrop in USD/JPY is bullish, with trend indicators aligned bullishly for USD/JPY across short, medium and long-term timeframes, with no obvious resistance points above the market until 135 (2002 high) and 147.65 (1998 high).”

“While not our base case, we would not rule out USD/JPY extending towards the JPY135-140 range (140 is one standard deviation above its 10-year moving average).” 

“We do note that the JPY’s real effective exchange rate is at an all-time low while short-term market positioning indicators (CFTC data) reflect a market that is running a quite significant (though not extreme) short JPY position. These factors may mitigate broader downside pressure on the JPY in the coming months.”