US Dollar Index to close the week around 107.00 unless a big miss on NFP – ING

The dollar has remained close to its recent highs. Today's Nonfarm Payrolls data in the US should show a slowdown in hiring, but economists think only a big miss can trigger a dovish re-pricing in the Fed's rate expectations, and the dollar should be able to consolidate around recent highs.

NFP unlikely a game-changer

“We think that only a very weak reading today can trigger a sizeable re-pricing in the market’s Fed rate expectations given the Bank’s explicit strong focus on fighting inflation and CPI numbers next week will surely carry a much bigger weight.” 

“The Fed's underlying narrative should continue to provide some support to the dollar, which incidentally seems to embed a larger risk of a global slowdown now, and likely some growing divergence between the economic outlook for North America and the rest of the world (Europe, above all).”

“We expect the dollar to consolidate around current levels today, and DXY to close the week around 107.00.”

See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from 10 major banks, labour market loses momentum