EUR/CHF: New SNB intervention strategy can easily lead to accelerating franc appreciation – Commerzbank

With its decision on June 16, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) performed a U-turn. Against the euro, the Swiss franc has since gained a good 6%. And that must be exactly the goal if the SNB wants to fight inflation by means of CHF strength, in the view of economists at Commerzbank.

Can "leaning against the wind" be successful?

“The SNB's new intervention policy is currently preventing any significant EUR/CHF recovery phase. Because an exchange rate that cannot rise significantly is likely to fall with increasing speed, increasing Swiss franc appreciation speed is likely.” 

“Although the SNB also threatens to intervene in the event of excessive CHF appreciation, these are unlikely to prevent significant CHF appreciation in the medium-term if they are interpreted by the market as ‘leaning against the wind’.”