USD/TRY: The next big depreciation of the lira may be just around the corn – Commerzbank

USD/TRY stays firmer at the yearly top. Economists at Commerzbank expect the lira to suffer a substantial drop.

There is a misconception that all is rosy on the growth front

“The deterioration of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation expectations, current-account and balance sheets is widely recognised. But there is a misconception that all is rosy on the growth front. To the contrary, as soon as one uses deeper, structural indicators, the growth performance evaporates.” 

“What is the implication for the lira? Well, our analysis puts the historical record straight. In this sense, it has no direct implication for the lira.”

“We expect that the next big depreciation of the lira may be just around the corner, but that would be for all the usual reasons.”