3 Feb 2015
Oil price rise only due to market sentiments – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Research Team, explains that the current rise in oil prices is only due to change in market sentiments as oil prices should actually weighed down by rising inventories due to the ongoing US refinery strike.
Key Quotes
“The oil price sky-rocketed after Baker Hughes (BH) Rig Count data showed on Friday another steep decline in number of active oil rigs in the US.”
“In comparison with Thursday’s close, price of the front-month contract on Brent already soared by nearly 15% (!) although the only thing that apparently changed is market sentiment.”
“In fact, market more or less ignores a set of bearish data (US ISM Manufacturing and China’s PMI) as well as ongoing US refinery strike (which will likely lead to an increase in crude oil inventories and in theory should therefore weigh on prices).”
“Regarding the BH data, the steep decline in number of active rigs means that a pace of growth of US oil production may not only slow down, but even decline towards the year-end.”
“Regarding next week’s EIA reports, even more important may be the publication of Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday as it contains explicit forecasts of US oil production for the following months.”
“Let us recall that EIA revised its forecast for this year’s US oil production down by about 200 thousand barrels per day in January 2015 vis-à-vis its October 2014 forecast. Given the decline of US oil rig counts, this trend of downward revisions is likely to continue.”
Key Quotes
“The oil price sky-rocketed after Baker Hughes (BH) Rig Count data showed on Friday another steep decline in number of active oil rigs in the US.”
“In comparison with Thursday’s close, price of the front-month contract on Brent already soared by nearly 15% (!) although the only thing that apparently changed is market sentiment.”
“In fact, market more or less ignores a set of bearish data (US ISM Manufacturing and China’s PMI) as well as ongoing US refinery strike (which will likely lead to an increase in crude oil inventories and in theory should therefore weigh on prices).”
“Regarding the BH data, the steep decline in number of active rigs means that a pace of growth of US oil production may not only slow down, but even decline towards the year-end.”
“Regarding next week’s EIA reports, even more important may be the publication of Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday as it contains explicit forecasts of US oil production for the following months.”
“Let us recall that EIA revised its forecast for this year’s US oil production down by about 200 thousand barrels per day in January 2015 vis-à-vis its October 2014 forecast. Given the decline of US oil rig counts, this trend of downward revisions is likely to continue.”